In a development that has stunned political pundits and strategists alike, a new shock poll reveals that former President Donald Trump has taken the lead over Joe Biden among Black voters. This surprising twist comes from an initial report by Mark Mitchell of Rasmussen Reports, who unveiled the results during a conversation with Steve Bannon on the War Room. According to the poll, Trump edges out Biden by one point—39 percent to 38 percent—in a direct head-to-head matchup among Black voters. In a more complex five-way race, Trump’s lead expands significantly, securing 43 percent compared to Biden’s 31 percent, with Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. pulling in 12 percent.
This polling data marks a dramatic shift from previous months and election years. As recently as last month, similar surveys had Biden leading Trump among Black voters by substantial margins. For instance, a New York Times/Siena College poll showed Biden at 66 percent to Trump’s 23 percent among this demographic. These figures were already a reduction from Biden’s overwhelming support in the 2020 election, where he topped Trump among Black voters by 87 percent to 12 percent.
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So, what’s behind this seismic shift? The poll was part of a monthly immigration survey sponsored by NumbersUSA, but it’s the broader context that’s intriguing. Mitchell explained that subset polling can have significant fluctuations, suggesting that next month’s results could swing back in Biden’s favor. However, the current data points to a deeper discontent among Black voters, particularly concerning the state of the nation under Biden’s leadership.
The Biden campaign appears to be acutely aware of this potential hemorrhage of support. Over the past month, they’ve ramped up efforts to retain their base, deploying sharp attacks against Trump and making high-profile appearances aimed at Black communities. One notable event was Biden’s graduation speech at Morehouse College, where he painted a stark picture of racism in America—a message seemingly aimed at rallying Black voters against Trump.
But are these efforts enough? Interviews from Trump’s rally in the Bronx reveal that Black and Hispanic voters share many of the same concerns as other groups—namely, dissatisfaction with current economic conditions and a longing for what they perceive as better times under Trump. This sentiment seems to be resonating, creating an opening for Trump to challenge Biden’s historically strong support among Black voters.
NBC's Dasha Burns talks with black and Hispanic voters at the Bronx rally:
"Trump is the man who can save this country, period."
They don't care that Democrats smear him unfairly as a racist. They care about his policies. The pocketbook issues are driving them to the polls. pic.twitter.com/fkPBvnuCAd
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) May 24, 2024
If these numbers hold, they could have profound implications for the 2024 election. Black voters are a crucial demographic for the Democratic Party, and any erosion of their support could spell trouble for Biden. Trump’s unexpected lead suggests that his campaign’s outreach efforts may be bearing fruit, highlighting issues that resonate across racial lines.
As the political landscape continues to evolve, these polling results underscore the volatile nature of voter sentiment. With both campaigns now aware of the shifting dynamics, expect to see intensified efforts to win over this critical bloc of voters. Only time will tell whether this poll is an outlier or a genuine indicator of changing tides in American politics.
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