North Carolina’s political landscape is heating up ahead of the 2026 Senate race, with early signs pointing to a seismic shift within the Republican Party. A new Victory Insights poll shows Lara Trump, daughter-in-law of President-elect Trump, commanding a staggering 65% support among Republican primary voters, compared to a paltry 11% for incumbent Senator Thom Tillis. The data underscores a growing appetite among conservatives for candidates who align closely with Trump’s brand of populism.
Tillis, a two-term senator known for his centrist approach and bipartisan deal-making, is increasingly viewed by grassroots conservatives as out of step with the party’s Trump-aligned base. In contrast, Lara Trump, despite being a political newcomer, has used her family name and campaign experience to galvanize support. Her ties to the former president have positioned her as the candidate best equipped to carry the MAGA mantle into 2026.
While Trump’s popularity among Republicans is undeniable, the poll also reveals potential vulnerabilities in a general election. Both Lara Trump and Tillis trail Democratic candidate Roy Cooper, North Carolina’s outgoing governor, by razor-thin margins—1.2% and 1.1%, respectively. Cooper’s bipartisan appeal and favorable reputation, particularly for his leadership during the pandemic, make him a formidable contender in a state that has become increasingly purple.
One area of optimism for Lara Trump is her performance among independent voters. The poll shows her edging out Tillis in this critical demographic, securing 41.1% of independents compared to Tillis’s 40.6%. Analysts believe her ability to mobilize low-propensity Trump voters—many of whom sat out midterms in the past—could be decisive in a close race.
“The only metric in which Tillis outperforms Lara Trump is [favorability] among Democrats.” https://t.co/vJr3G8ewxT
— Ben Galbraith (@_BenGalbraith) December 2, 2024
However, a contentious Republican primary looms as a potential obstacle. A divisive battle between Lara Trump and Tillis risks splintering the party, leaving the eventual nominee weakened against Cooper. While speculation about Lara Trump’s candidacy is mounting, she has not yet declared her intentions. Notably, she has also been linked to Florida’s soon-to-be-vacant Senate seat following Marco Rubio’s nomination as Secretary of State.
Ben Galbraith, Senior Pollster at Victory Insights, noted, “Republicans need a candidate who can fundraise competitively, survive the primary, and appeal to nonpartisan voters. Lara Trump may be the perfect fit.”
For now, the 2026 race is shaping up to be a clash of ideologies, loyalties, and shifting demographics in a state that could determine the future balance of power in the Senate.
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