Kathy Hochul in HUGE Trouble as MAGA Republican Eyes Her Job

Kathy Hochul might want to clear her calendar for 2026 — and not for another term in Albany.

According to a new Co/efficient poll, New York Governor Kathy Hochul is teetering on the edge of political collapse, and the person most likely to shove her off the ledge is none other than Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), the unapologetic Trump-aligned congresswoman who’s fast becoming a household name even in deep-blue territory.

The poll, conducted earlier this month, pits Stefanik directly against Hochul in a hypothetical 2026 gubernatorial matchup. The results? A dead heat. Hochul clocks in at just 43% support, with Stefanik right behind at 42%. What should be a walk in the park for a Democratic incumbent in a state like New York is, instead, a photo finish — and we’re still two years out. Even worse for Hochul, a jaw-dropping 15% of voters remain undecided, signaling that her support is not only soft, it’s sliding.

Meanwhile, Stefanik dominates the Republican field, pulling 56% in a hypothetical GOP primary against potential challengers Mike Lawler and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, who sit at a distant 9% and 8% respectively. In other words: if Stefanik runs, she wins the nomination. Period.

What’s fueling the momentum behind Stefanik? For starters, Hochul’s numbers are brutal. Just 30% of New Yorkers have a favorable view of her, while 57% disapprove. President Trump — in deep-blue New York! — fares better, with 44% approval and 49% unfavorable. That’s an earthquake under the feet of Democrats who thought the Empire State was theirs by default.

Even worse for Hochul, only 23% of voters say she deserves reelection. A whopping 63% want someone new. That’s not just a red flag — that’s a sky full of flares.

Elise Stefanik, for her part, has wisely played the long game. She declined a high-profile ambassadorship offer from President Trump last month, reportedly at the request of House Speaker Mike Johnson, who wants her to help preserve the GOP’s thin House majority. But she’s made no secret of her ambition to move up the political ladder, and with poll numbers like these, a 2026 gubernatorial bid is starting to look like the smart bet.

Democrats, of course, are already in panic mode. Hochul’s campaign called Stefanik an extremist and recycled the same tired lines about “gutting healthcare” and “ripping away rights.” But if that had worked in 2022, Hochul wouldn’t be underwater today.

New York has a history of veering left, but the 2026 map could be different — especially if Trump remains strong at the top of the ticket and Hochul continues to bleed support in the suburbs and among independents.

Bottom line: Elise Stefanik is already within striking distance. Hochul’s got the job, but Stefanik’s got the momentum. And in politics, that’s what wins.