In the world of politics, predictions and forecasts are a dime a dozen. But what if there was a historian with an infallible record of predicting presidential elections? Meet Allan Lichtman, a professor at American University, who claims to have accurately predicted every election since 1984. With such a track record, it’s hard not to be intrigued by his prediction model for the upcoming 2024 race.
Lichtman’s prediction model, developed in partnership with Russian mathematical geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, consists of 13 keys that determine the outcome of a presidential election. These keys, first published in a 1981 paper, have been the foundation of Lichtman’s predictions throughout the years.
Let’s take a closer look at these 13 keys:
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Midterm gains: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the House than after the previous midterm elections.
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No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
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Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
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No third party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.
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Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
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Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
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Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
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No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
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No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by a major scandal.
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No foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
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Major foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
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Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
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Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
According to Lichtman, President Biden currently leads former President Trump in five of the 13 keys, with Trump leading in three, and the rest undecided. Let’s delve into the keys where each candidate has the upper hand.
Key #2: Biden has not faced a serious challenger in his own party, giving him an edge over Trump in securing the incumbent party nomination. Key #3: As the sitting president, Biden ticks off this key effortlessly. Key #6: Lichtman argues that the long-term economic trend is headed upward, favoring Biden’s campaign. Key #7: Biden has made significant changes in national policy, satisfying this key. Lastly, Key #13: Lichtman believes that a challenger should have broad bipartisan support or be a national hero, something Biden possesses to a certain extent.
On the other hand, Trump leads in Keys #1, #11, and #12. Lichtman points out that the Democrats do not hold more seats in the House than after the previous midterm elections, which puts Trump ahead in Key #1. Furthermore, Biden has not achieved a major foreign policy win, fulfilling Key #11. Lastly, Lichtman argues that Biden is neither charismatic nor a national hero, giving Trump the upper hand in Key #12.
The remaining keys are still up in the air, waiting to be determined as the 2024 race unfolds. Key #4, which examines the presence of a significant third-party or independent campaign, is yet to be decided. Keys #5, #8, #9, and #10, which revolve around the state of the economy, social unrest, scandal, and foreign/military failure, respectively, are also waiting for their verdict.
Lichtman attributes his success as a forecaster to one crucial factor: keeping personal views out of the equation. He claims to have called both Republican and Democratic wins over the years, emphasizing the importance of objectivity in making accurate predictions.
In 2016, Lichtman was virtually alone in predicting a win for Donald Trump, showcasing his ability to think outside the box and challenge conventional wisdom.
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