The first poll of the 2028 GOP presidential primary suggests that the Republican Party’s future may look a lot like its present. Vice President-elect J.D. Vance has emerged as the early frontrunner, capturing 37% of the vote in a survey by Echelon Insights. The Ohio senator, who has quickly risen from a best-selling author to a key figure in the MAGA movement, is clearly benefiting from his close association with President-elect Trump.
Far behind in second place, at just 9%, is biotech entrepreneur and MAGA-aligned firebrand Vivek Ramaswamy. While Ramaswamy has some catching up to do, he’s hardly being sidelined. Last week, Trump tapped him and Elon Musk to co-manage a new federal agency aimed at eliminating waste and fraud—giving Ramaswamy ample opportunity to bolster his public image over the next four years.
Also in the mix are familiar faces like Nikki Haley (9%), Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (8%), Texas Senator Ted Cruz (5%), and incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio (5%). Each has either run for president before or flirted with the idea, and their presence highlights the continued influence of past GOP stars. Rubio, in particular, is expected to take on high-profile challenges in Trump’s second administration, such as resolving international conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. If he performs well, his stock in 2028 could rise significantly.
NEW: 2028 GOP primary poll
Vance: 37%
Ramaswamy: 9%
Haley: 9%
DeSantis: 8%
Cruz: 5%
Rubio: 5%Echelon | 11/14-18 | N=483
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 19, 2024
At just 40 years old, Vance stands poised to become one of the youngest vice presidents in American history. Only Richard Nixon and John C. Breckinridge were younger at the time of their swearing-in. Both men later pursued the presidency themselves, a path that Vance appears well-positioned to follow.
The poll also reveals that Republicans are slightly more decisive about their next standard-bearer than Democrats, 27% of whom remain undecided compared to 33% of Democrats. On the Democratic side, Vice President Kamala Harris is leading the pack for 2028 with 41% support. Despite her poor performance compared to President Joe Biden in past elections, Harris far outpaces California Governor Gavin Newsom (8%) and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (7%).
#New 2028 DEM primary poll
Kamala Harris – 41%
Gavin Newsom – 8%
Josh Shapiro – 7%
Pete Buttigieg – 6%
Tim walz – 6%Echelon pic.twitter.com/8za4jyDUiZ
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 19, 2024
While early polls often shift dramatically, the 2028 GOP race is already taking shape. Vance’s commanding lead underscores the staying power of Trump’s political brand and suggests that a post-Trump Republican Party may not stray far from the MAGA roadmap. For now, the race to inherit Trump’s mantle is Vance’s to lose.
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