Three weeks after Election Day, the race for California’s 13th Congressional District has entered nail-biting territory. Democrat Adam Gray has pulled ahead of Republican incumbent John Duarte by a mere 105 votes—a margin of just 0.06%. The late-breaking update from Merced County has tipped the scales in Gray’s favor, but with the race this tight, a recount is almost certain.
The 13th District, encompassing parts of Merced, Stanislaus, Madera, Fresno, and San Joaquin counties, has become a key battleground following redistricting. Historically leaning blue, demographic shifts and competitive campaigns have turned it into one of the nation’s most-watched contests. Voter turnout in the district reached just over 60%, and as usual in California, mail-in ballots arriving post-Election Day have played a pivotal role in the outcome.
Merced County Registrar of Voters Melvin Levey confirmed that nearly all ballots in the county have been processed, with fewer than 1,500 remaining due to issues like signature mismatches. Voters have until December 1 to resolve these challenges, known as “curing” their ballots. Campaigns are actively reaching out to voters to ensure every possible ballot is counted. Final certification of the results is expected by December 3.
California’s prolonged vote-counting process has drawn scrutiny once again. State law allows mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted if they arrive within seven days. While this system ensures a high degree of ballot access, critics argue that the lengthy timeline fuels frustration and skepticism. “We’re pretty accustomed in California to taking several weeks to get certified results,” Levey acknowledged, emphasizing that the process is conducted in strict compliance with state law.
This race isn’t the only example of Democratic gains in California this cycle. Gray’s slim lead makes him the third Democratic challenger to unseat a House Republican since Election Day. In northern Los Angeles County, George Whitesides flipped the 27th Congressional District, defeating Rep. Mike Garcia. Meanwhile, in Orange County’s 45th District, Democrat Derek Tran declared victory over Rep. Michelle Steel.
With Gray’s victory still unofficial, both parties are bracing for a recount and potential legal challenges. The race in CA-13 underscores the evolving political dynamics in California’s Central Valley and the critical role mail-in ballots continue to play in shaping outcomes. For now, the battle isn’t over—it’s just entering its next phase.
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