In an election season that’s already shaping up to be one of the closest in a generation, CNN’s senior data reporter Harry Enten dropped some serious news that should have both parties on edge. On Monday, Enten showcased new polling data, and if you’re a Trump supporter, you might be grinning ear to ear right now. In critical swing states across the Sun Belt, the numbers are turning redder by the day, making it a competitive electoral battleground as Kamala Harris struggles to keep pace.
Let’s break it down: Enten highlighted that in states like Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, Trump is outperforming his 2020 run, gaining critical ground. In Arizona, he’s up by 5 points. Georgia? Up by 4. North Carolina? A tight race, but Trump’s leading by 3. These are states where Biden had significant success in 2020, and now Trump is not only competitive—he’s winning.
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According to Enten, when you average Trump’s lead across these battlegrounds, he’s ahead by 4 points compared to where he stood in 2020. And that’s huge. Trump’s support is growing, not shrinking. The former president’s voter base is evolving too. Back in 2020, 81% of Trump’s voters were white; now that number has dropped to 77%, with a significant uptick in non-white voters, especially in these more diverse Sun Belt states. This shift is key to understanding why Trump is doing so well in these areas compared to Harris.
But before you start celebrating a Trump victory too soon, let’s not forget the Great Lakes states—Wisconsin and Pennsylvania—where Harris is clinging to slim leads, up just 2 points in both states. These states were crucial for Biden in 2020, and they’ll likely be central to the Harris strategy in 2024.
In North Carolina, controversy surrounding Republican governor candidate Mark Robinson could impact Trump’s support, particularly with moderate voters. On the flip side, economic issues—Trump’s bread and butter—are still resonating with voters. And while Harris is gaining ground on social issues like abortion and immigration, the split on who’s better equipped to handle these hot-button topics shows the electorate is still deeply divided.
As Enten wrapped up his analysis, he pointed out that if the polls hold, Harris could carry the Great Lakes while Trump secures the Sun Belt. The result? A razor-thin margin—276 electoral votes for Harris, 262 for Trump. It’s the closest race in a generation, folks, and we’re in for a wild ride until the very last vote is counted.
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