Anderson Cooper might be a veteran journalist, but even he’s starting to get a bit antsy about these new polls showing Kamala Harris in the lead. You can’t really blame him. After all, we’ve seen this movie before with President Trump—twice, actually. Back in 2016 and 2020, pollsters, pundits, and the mainstream media all wrote Trump off, only to get blindsided when he pulled off his historic upset. Now, with polls suggesting Harris has a real shot at 2024, Cooper is scratching his head and questioning what’s real and what’s wishful thinking.
During a recent appearance on Late Night with Stephen Colbert, Cooper got candid. “I mean, I report on them[polls], I think they are interesting to talk about,” he said. But in the next breath, he admitted something we’ve all been thinking: “I don’t think I buy them.” This isn’t just some light skepticism. Cooper is flat-out nervous, and he’s not alone. A lot of people remember the “sure thing” Hillary Clinton was supposed to be in 2016, only to end up watching Trump take that oath of office in January. Fool me once, right?
Kamala Harris has been on a roller coaster when it comes to polling. Since Joe Biden shockingly suspended his re-election campaign in July, she’s enjoyed what the media is calling a “surge.” As of September, Harris boasts a +1 net favorability rating, compared to Trump’s -9. Now, look, a bump from her disastrous -14 rating earlier this summer is certainly something, but let’s not pretend Harris is beloved by the American public all of a sudden. The only thing Harris has surged past is the bottom of the barrel, but that’s hardly a winning strategy.
Nate Silver, the polling guru who predicted Trump’s surprise wins, has been waving the caution flag on all this Harris hype. “The polls have been wrong before,” he reminded people, and that’s the understatement of the decade. Pollsters underestimated Trump not once, but twice, and history has a funny way of repeating itself.
At the end of the day, Cooper’s right to be nervous. Kamala Harris might be enjoying a brief honeymoon in the polls, but if we’ve learned anything from the Trump era, it’s that the polls can only tell you so much. Until the votes are counted, it’s anyone’s game—especially when Trump’s name is still on the ballot.
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